ICANNs latest new gTLD study results of the “Phase II Assessment of the Competitive Effects Associated with the New gTLD Program” explores whether the program has affected competition in the domain name marketplace. Indeed it was found that GeoTLD registrations may have an impact on the ccTLD registrations:
There continues to be no aggregate (worldwide) effect of new gTLD entry or registrations on legacy TLD registrations. This suggests that total TLD registrations have grown since the beginning of the New gTLD program, since legacy TLD registrations have not fallen and new gTLD registrations are growing. However, in analyzing the effect of the entry of regionally‐specific TLDs (e.g., nyc), we typically observe a decline in new gTLD and legacy registrations after the entry of the regional TLD in the region relevant to that TLD. This suggests that regional TLDs may be viewed as substitutes for other new gTLDs and legacy TLDs.
These study results pretty much correspond with observations that have been made in the German domain name marketplace. For instance, the number of domain names with an owner with residence in Berlin was steady in 2015 compared to 2014 while the number of .berlin domain names contributed to an overall growth of the Berlin marketplace:
We have not made this comparision to other German cities and regions yet.